Elizabeth Berger
The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) maintains a analysis program often called the Nationwide Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) that measures and tracks nonfatal victimizations in america. The NCVS is an official supply of crime knowledge and the first supply of unreported crime. It collects detailed data on the frequency and nature of a number of offenses, together with: rape, theft, aggravated assault, easy assault, larceny, housebreaking, trespassing, motorized vehicle theft, and different kinds of family theft.
Just lately, BJS has undertaken a number of efforts to extend the effectivity, reliability, and utility of the NCVS. First was a revamp within the urbanicity measure used to categorise areas as rural, suburban, or city. Second, the NCVS additionally started gathering subnational estimates to assist make knowledge extra exact. Third, the NCVS survey was fully re-designed to assist enhance validity of the estimates. Based mostly on just lately launched studies, it seems that the revised model of the NCVS reveals clear enhancements over the earlier model. On this put up, I’ll focus on these enhancements (and why they matter) in additional element.
New Measures of Urbanicity
Traditionally, the NCVS has relied on very poor measures of urbanicity, which had been primarily based solely on an space’s proximity to the closest Metropolitan Statistical Space (MSA), with out taking inhabitants density or housing density under consideration. Areas inside a principal metropolis of an MSA had been labeled as city, areas inside an MSA however not inside a principal metropolis had been labeled as suburban, and areas outdoors of an MSA had been labeled as rural. MSAs had been primarily based on complete counties, and every county could be labeled as solely non-rural (if a part of an MSA) or solely rural (if not a part of an MSA). Problematically although, it’s not often the case {that a} county is solely rural or solely non-rural, and this measure was seemingly by no means legitimate to start with. The measure additionally didn’t take inhabitants density under consideration, so many small cities with low inhabitants densities would finish of being labeled as “city” as a consequence of their distance from the closest MSA.
For instance, California’s San Bernardino County covers greater than 20,000 sq. miles and consists of a lot of the Mojave Desert, however it was beforehand labeled as having “no rural areas” as a result of the county is a part of the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario MSA. In distinction, Colorado’s La Plata County was beforehand labeled as “solely rural” as a result of it isn’t a part of an MSA, regardless of Census Bureau knowledge displaying that 40% of the inhabitants lives in non-rural areas.
The brand new measure for urbanicity is predicated accounts for each housing density and the gap to the middle of a significant metropolitan space, which is a significant distinction. The brand new standards classify an space as “city” if it meets one of many following: 1) inside a main metropolis of a big metropolitan space (500,000+ individuals) and has a housing unit density of not less than 3,000 items per sq. mile; 2) inside a significant (however not main) metropolis of a big metropolitan space and has a housing unit density of not less than 4,000 items per sq. mile; 3) inside a significant metropolis of a medium-sized metropolitan space (50,000-499,999 individuals) and has a housing unit density of not less than 5,000 items per sq. mile; and 4) inside a significant metropolis of a small (10,000-49,999 individuals) metropolitan space and has a housing unit density of not less than 10,000 items per sq. mile. Suburban areas are characterised by decrease housing densities, bigger ratios of single-family properties to flats, and layouts primarily based principally on vehicle transportation. These areas are a mixture of “suburbia correct,” cities, and a few smaller cities. The whole lot else is classed as rural.
In response to the historic NCVS definition, essentially the most city area within the nation was the West, and essentially the most suburban area was the Northeast. Below the brand new definitions, the Northeast is by far essentially the most city area and the West is essentially the most suburban area. A whole record of locations labeled as city will be considered within the appendix of this report.
These new definitions extra intently match U.S. residents’ personal sense of the place they dwell, as mirrored within the Census Bureau’s American Housing Survey (AHS). With revised definitions, researchers now have the chance to precisely evaluate victimization charges throughout rural, suburban, and concrete areas. The primary of those studies was really just lately published, and it in contrast the prevalence of victimization throughout rural, suburban, and concrete areas.
Redesigning the Instrument
The NCVS Instrument Redesign and Testing Project was a significant multiyear effort undertaken by Westat, Inc. on behalf of the BJS to revamp the present core survey instrument, which was final up to date in 1992. The researchers from Westat developed and assessed the brand new instrument in a large-scale nationwide subject take a look at. The venture aimed to modernize the core NCVS instrument, which included modifications to the victimization screener and movement and logic of the instrument, the addition of recent measures of police efficiency and neighborhood security, and expanded measures of correlates of victimization and help-seeking.
A current report by Westat describes the large-scale nationwide subject take a look at to evaluate the brand new NCVS instrument. The report describes the most important modifications made to the survey and assess the efficiency and burden of the outdated NCVS in comparison with the brand new NCVS, compares victimization charges derived from every instrument, and examines variations in knowledge high quality and respondent burden. The pattern for his or her subject take a look at was drawn from the 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia utilizing a three-stage design that chosen counties adopted by census tracts adopted by households. Information assortment started in October 2019 and continued by way of March 2020.
One of many first main modifications concerned the Victimization Screener (NCVS-1). The outdated instrument introduced lengthy probes that had been considerably cumbersome to reply, and these lengthy probes had been damaged up into a number of shorter probes inside every screener sequence. Subsequent, they up to date content material throughout the probes, resembling including “cellular phone” to the record of things more likely to be stolen throughout a housebreaking. In addition they expanded the probes asking about Rape and Sexual Assault (RSA). Lastly, whereas the essential kinds of crimes requested about remained principally the identical, Vandalism was added to the screener sequence.
One other main change concerned computer-assisted interviewing capabilities. For folks passing the screener sequence, computer-assisted interviewing was capable of pull beforehand reported data to find out what kinds of follow-up questions for the second stage, i.e., the Crime Incident Report (CIR). To make sure that adequate data could be carried from the preliminary screener to the CIR, the redesign added follow-up probes for every incident that was reported. This allowed somebody to supply extra particulars on every incident and in some circumstances helped folks recall extra details about what occurred.
When evaluating victimization estimates between devices, the researchers discovered that the brand new instrument detected elevated victimization estimates, particularly for Easy Assault, Motor Car Theft, and Different Theft. This distinction is essentially attributable to further probes that had been added into the instrument that helped folks recall much less memorable experiences.
With regards to burden, the second model of the interview was longer as a consequence of added content material, however this distinction was solely by a couple of minutes. Nonetheless, acquiring data for the second stage (i.e., the CIR) was a bit of sooner for individuals who had been screened underneath the brand new protocol. This was seemingly as a result of the preliminary screener responses might be routed by way of the CIR. One draw back is that the brand new survey did have a small however considerably lowered response charge compared to the outdated survey (24.3% vs. 27.0%, respectively), which is considerably indicative of better burden.
Conclusion
The current modifications to the NCVS seem principally helpful. The re-classification of urbanicity is rather more exact and correct than earlier measures. The re-design of the instrument (particularly, the extra probes scripted into the survey) additionally appeared to seize extra victimizations than earlier iterations, and appeared to assist people with their recall of previous occasions. Sadly, the brand new model of the survey did seem barely extra burdensome, with a lowered response charge of about 3%.